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The 100th Comrades · 13 June 2027Comrades predictor: your time and medal
Type a recent marathon and get a realistic Comrades finishing time and the medal it points to, for the 100th Comrades — a down run of about 90 km on Sunday 13 June 2027. Real finishers average about 2.5× their marathon; this predictor follows that, not a flattering formula.
On that marathon, aim for Bronze; Robert Mtshali is possible on a very good day.
Every medal, and what it takes
| Medal | Finish under | Pace | Marathon needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wally Hayward (men) | 6:00:00 | 4:00/km | about 2:20:43 |
| Isavel Roche-Kelly (women) | 7:00:00 | 4:40/km | about 2:44:11 |
| Silver (men from 6:00) | 7:30:00 | 5:00/km | about 2:55:54 |
| Bill Rowan | 9:00:00 | 6:00/km | about 3:31:05 |
| Robert Mtshali | 10:00:00 | 6:40/km | about 3:54:32 |
| Bronze | 11:00:00 | 7:20/km | about 4:18:00 |
| Vic Clapham | 12:00:00 | 8:00/km | about 4:41:27 |
Why 2.5× your marathon
The traditional rule is that a Comrades takes about two and a half times your marathon. Analysis of real finishers puts it at about 2.56× the qualifying marathon — a little more for men, a little less for women — and the correlation is loose: fuelling, heat, the downhills and how the first half was paced decide a lot. Pure fitness models are far too kind over 90 km; stretched that far, Daniels’ VDOT would say 2.15×, which is how people end up chasing a medal their marathon does not support.
So the predictor gives a likely time, a range around it, and the medal it points to. On a very good day you might beat the middle of the range; on a hot one, or after a fast first half, you will not.
The 2027 medals
Gold goes to the first ten men and women. The Wally Hayward medal is men from 11th to under six hours, and the Isavel Roche-Kelly women from 11th to under seven. Silver is to 7:29:59, Bill Rowan to 8:59:59, Robert Mtshali to 9:59:59, Bronze to 10:59:59 and Vic Clapham inside the twelve-hour cut-off. Check the official race information before race day.
Training for the 100th
About 24 weeks of focused training on top of a marathon base, with the block starting on Monday 28 December for the 13 June race. The long run builds to about 55 km and never more than 40% of the week. A down run needs time on downhills in training, not just flat kilometres: they do the muscle damage that ends Comrades in the last 30 km. Walk breaks are a strategy to practise, not a failure.
Every Comrades medal, and what it takes
- Wally Hayward medal — under 6:00:00
- Isavel Roche-Kelly medal — under 7:00:00
- Comrades silver medal — 6:00:00 to 7:29:59
- Bill Rowan medal — 7:30:00 to 8:59:59
- Robert Mtshali medal — 9:00:00 to 9:59:59
- Comrades bronze medal — 10:00:00 to 10:59:59
- Vic Clapham medal — 11:00:00 to 11:59:59
Common questions
What marathon time do I need for a Bill Rowan?
Roughly 3:30 or quicker. A marginal sub-3:30, especially on a fast course, may not be enough for sub-9 at Comrades.
What marathon time do I need for a Bronze?
About a 4:15 marathon points to a sub-11 Comrades. Inside 4:40 or so points to a finish inside the twelve hours.
When is the 2027 Comrades?
Sunday 13 June 2027: the 100th Comrades, a down run from Pietermaritzburg City Hall to Durban, about 90 km. The official distance is confirmed once the route is measured.
When should I start training for Comrades 2027?
A 24-week block starts on Monday 28 December 2026. Start dates for every race.
Put this calculator on your club’s website
Free for running clubs, coaches, race organisers and bloggers. Copy the code below into any page that accepts HTML — WordPress, Wix and Squarespace all do — and your members get the same live comrades predictor: your time and medal, with nothing to install and no sign-up.
Keep the credit line under it, please: that is the only thing we ask in return.
Related
Build my Comrades 2027 planFree to build. See your whole block before you pay.