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AnswersHow much should weekly training increase?
A common rule is no more than 10% a week, with a lighter week every three or four weeks. Race Shape enforces that ceiling, and lowers it to 7% when an athlete reports a niggle. It is worth being honest about the evidence, though: the 10% rule is a sensible convention rather than a proven threshold, and the best-known trial of it found no reduction in injuries for novice runners.
What 10% looks like
| Week | Volume at a 10% ramp from 30 km |
|---|---|
| Week 1 | 30.0 km |
| Week 2 | 33.0 km |
| Week 3 | 36.3 km |
| Week 4 | 39.9 km |
| Week 4 — lighter | 27.1 km, about two thirds of week 3 |
| Week 5 | 43.9 km — the ramp resumes from the last full week |
Two details make the rule usable. First, a percentage is meaningless at tiny volumes: 10% of 8 km is under a kilometre. Race Shape allows a small absolute increase regardless, so a new runner is not stuck. Second, it measures load, not just distance — two hard sessions added to the same kilometres is a bigger jump than the kilometres suggest.
What the evidence says
In 2008, Buist and colleagues randomised novice runners to a graded programme that followed the 10% rule or to a standard, faster-building one. Injury rates were similar in both. That does not make the rule wrong — it makes it a reasonable guard rail rather than a guarantee. Sudden spikes in load are the thing to avoid; the exact percentage matters less than consistency.
Common questions
Does the 10% rule prevent injuries?
Not reliably, on the available evidence. It is a conservative ceiling that keeps increases gradual. Consistency and avoiding sudden spikes matter more than the exact figure.
Why does the plan use 7% sometimes?
When you tell it about a niggle. A more cautious ramp costs very little fitness and gives a sore area more time to adapt.
What about multiple sports?
The ceiling applies to the combined load of all of them. Two sports that each rise sensibly can still add up to a big jump.
Sources
- Buist, I. et al. (2008). No effect of a graded training program on the number of running-related injuries in novice runners: a randomized controlled trial. American Journal of Sports Medicine.